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Let $X, Y$ be continuous random variables with known copula $C$. Let us have access to sets (intervals) $S_x(\alpha),S_y(\alpha), \alpha\in(0,1)$ such that $$P(X\in S_x(\alpha))\geq \alpha,$$ $$P(Y\in S_y(\alpha))\geq \alpha$$ for any $\alpha$.

If that helps, we may assume that the sets are symmetric in a sense that $$P(X > \sup S_x(\alpha))< 1-\alpha/2,$$ $$P(X < \inf S_x(\alpha))< 1-\alpha/2.$$

I would like to find a (at least a good approximation of) shortest possible set $S$ such that $$P(X+Y\in S)\geq 0.9.$$

Would you have some idea on how to do that (at least for some non-trivial examples of copulas)? A baseline guess gives me $S=S_x(0.95) + S_y(0.95)$, where I am using notation $A+B = \{a+b: a\in A, b\in B\}$ for two sets $A,B$. However, obviously this is only optimal set if and only if $X=-Y$.

Additionally, I have a feeling that there should exist some theory describing a set $S$ as a function of copula and marginal distributions $F_X, F_Y$.

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  • $\begingroup$ What do you mean by "shortest possible" set? And what does "access to sets $S_x(\alpha)$, $S_y(\alpha)$" mean? You know for every $\alpha$ an interval? Or the alpha for every interval? What is the relation between $S$ and the $S_x$, $S_y$? $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 2, 2024 at 8:07
  • $\begingroup$ Shortest possible = we are minimizing the length of S. Access to sets means that we want to construct S as a function of S_x(alpha), S_y(alpha). For every alpha we have one interval (one for X and one for Y). The relation between S and S_x, S_y is what I want to find out $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 2, 2024 at 8:33
  • $\begingroup$ You say $S$ is a Set. What is the "length" of a subset of, say, $\mathbb{R}^2$? $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 2, 2024 at 8:43
  • $\begingroup$ $S$ is a subset of R. Its an interval, or possibly a collection of intervals. $\endgroup$ Commented Dec 2, 2024 at 8:53

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I don't know if the following leads to a "practical" solution but it is a characterization of the minimum possible length. This responds also to the final line in the OP's post,

Additionally, I have a feeling that there should exist some theory describing a set S as a function of copula and marginal distributions $F_X,F_Y$.

Since $S$ is an interval, we can write $S = [\,\underline {s},\, \underline{s}+L]$, where $L>0$ is the length. Also set $Z \equiv X+Y$. Then the required property can be written as

$$\Pr(Z \leq \underline{s}+L) - \Pr(Z \leq \underline{s}) \geq 0.9$$

The two probabilities can now be written in terms of the cumulative distribution function of $Z$, say $F_Z$, so we require

$$F_Z(\underline{s}+L)) - F_Z(\underline{s}) \geq 0.9$$ $$ \implies L \geq F_Z^{-1}\big(0.9 + F_Z(\underline{s}) \big) - \underline{s}.$$

This last expression characterizes the minimum possible length in terms of the CDF and the quantile function of $Z$, and of $\underline{s}$.

We can write the CDF of $Z$ using eventually the copula density of $X,Y$ as

\begin{align} F_Z(z) = \Pr(Z \leq z) &= \Pr(X+Y \leq z) = \Pr(X \leq z-Y) \\ & = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} f_Y(y)\int_{-\infty}^{z-y}f_{X|Y}(x|y) dx dy\\ & =\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \int_{-\infty}^{z-y}f_Y(y)f_X(x) c\Big(F_X(x), F_Y(y)\Big) dx dy \end{align}

One perhaps could also exploit the other properties stated in the OP's post, related to the marginals of $X,Y$ to arrive at something more specific.

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